MITCH’S POST ALL STAR NBA TIER RANKINGS
As the Trade Deadline passes and All-Star weekend approaches, we tier out the teams in the NBA whether they are the real deal, potential playoff teams, or tanking for a draft pick.
We can win this thing!
True championship contenders, built to go far and win it all.
Oklahoma City Thunder
At the last trade deadline, everyone wanted the Thunder to acquire a big man. Now, with Holmgren, Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams, the Thunder finally made a move from another big in Daniel Theis… until they waived him. OKC has the depth to succeed in the regular season, and they have eight players for their playoff rotation, including Aaron Wiggins, who dropped 40 points at the start of the month. This is all happening with the MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander performing at a high level and being the league’s leading scorer.
Ceiling: Champion
Floor: Western Conference Semifinals
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers were bound to be a regular-season powerhouse. New coach Kenny Atkinson has had this team firing on all cylinders. The offense is first in overall net rating and eighth in defensive rating. While Donavon Mitchell’s counting stats may be down, the eye test will tell you that this has been the best year of the Garland-Mitchell experience. I love the addition of De’Andre Hunter filling out their rotation. He may have started a few games recently, but he has the most games over 20 points off the bench. While questions loom still about the dual bigs come playoff time, Mobley and Allen have stepped up. Do I think this team can win? Absolutely. I don’t love their depth at big, but they have wings and guards to run teams out of the gym.
Ceiling: Champion
Floor: First Round Exit
Boston Celtics
Boston started the NBA season at the same pace as the Cavaliers and Thunder. While Boston began to slip throughout January, the other two teams above them record-wise have fallen off the historical pace. Boston remains a true contender with the same roster as last year’s title team. Tatum and Brown still lead the charge, and White and KP take advantage of the lack of attention on offense, Holiday and Horford perform as the veteran leaders, and the Tres Leches crew of Pritchard, Hauser, and Kornet perform their duties admirably. The addition of Torey Craig is important as they have lacked consistent wing depth.
Ceiling: Title Repeat
Floor: Eastern Conference Semifinals
Denver Nuggets
It’s hard to count out the great Serbian. Sure, the Nuggets spent most of the season further down in the standings than the two West teams listed in the next tier, but the three-time MVP Nikola Jokic could be on the way to his fourth with how he and Russell Westbrook held this team together for the beginning portion of the season. Jamal Murray dusted off the rust from the poor start to the year and is back to averaging over 20 points per game. They do still lack a backup big for Jokic, but Malone being forced to trust in his younger guys has paid off in Strawther, Watson, and Braun.
Ceiling: Second Title in Three Years
Floor: First Round Exit
We are young and fun, but we can compete
Three teams that have young cores and have the talent to make a deep run in the playoffs.
Houston Rockets
Houston has been the big surprise of the season. I was confident they would hit their over in wins this season, but to be in the top 4 in the West after the trade deadline was not on my bingo card. This team is the definition of this category. Under the direction of Ime Udoka and with a young core of Jalen Green, Alpren Sengun, and Amen Thompson, the Rockets have had moments of pure electric energy. With veterans like Fred Van Vleet, Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams the Rockets have a presence of winners. The hidden gem of all of this is that Jabari Smith Jr comes back in a month or so.
Ceiling: First NBA Finals appearance since 1995
Floor: First Round Exit
Memphis Grizzlies
After a year of tanking, resting, and injuries, the Grizzlies are back and pushing toward another 50-win season. This has been Jaren Jackson Jr’s best season without a doubt. Sure he still has moments where fans want to put their head through a wall with some of his fouls, but it’s been better. Ja Morant’s health will always be in question, Bane’s scoring being down is scary, and having to trade a first-rounder with Smart to get him out of the building is unfortunate. What’s great about this team and shocks casual NBA fans is how high-powered this offense can be. If you can watch the Grizzlies at any point in the rest of the season, make it appointment TV. You never know if Morant will try and dunk on someone.
Ceiling: Western Conference Finals
Floor: Western Conference Semifinals
New York Knicks
During the off-season, the Knicks were the sexy franchise to talk about when it came to teams that could compete with Boston in the East. The acquisitions of Bridges and KAT were vital to how this team has played. The two-man game between Brunson and Anthony-Towns made their offense slow but effective. They are 25th in pace, but that helps your rotation when their starting five are all averaging over 35 minutes per game. The Knicks have missed Mitchel Robinson all season, but his return seems imminent. Their only move at the deadline was trading away Jericho Sims and acquiring Delon Wright in the Kyle Kuzma trade. So you know, just things around the edges. Perfect guy for Thibs that’s for sure.
Ceiling: Finals Appearance
Floor: First Round Exit
We are old, but we can compete… maybe?
A team that has the potential to make a deep playoff run… or lose very early on.
Milwaukee Bucks
It was sad seeing Middleton get moved from the Bucks. Whether it was hitting every clutch shot in the 2018 First Round or being the second-best player on their title run in 2021, Khris Middleton was Giannis’s sidekick through it all. Now Kuzma is on a ‘contending” team and can provide a hopeful lift that Middleton was unable to do since his injuries. There is hope they can turn it around, and when you have Giannis on your team, who is a top 5 player in this league, the Bucks can be considered a dangerous team.
Ceiling: Eastern Conference Finals
Floor First Round Exit
We are fun to watch now and in the playoffs
Two East teams that have had enjoyable regular season games and making playoff teams and low tiers teams look fun.
Indiana Pacers
Last year's Eastern Conference Finals finalist had a great January, going 10-2 in the month. Their defense may leave a lot to be desired, but their offense is free-flowing, open for any one of nine guys to score 20 points any night. Having a healthy year of Mathurin, a back-to-earth season for Haliburton, and a full year of Siakam has made this team super enjoyable to watch. Their efficiency on offense (fourth in FG%) and how well they work together on a Rick Carlisle offense is what makes this team impressive and a threat come late April.
Ceiling: Eastern Conference Finals Appearance
Floor: First Round Exit
Detroit Pistons
Two words: CADE CUNNINGHAM. That’s how this team has stayed afloat. Cunningham’s ability to score, create for others, rebound, and play defense that passes the Quinn Cook test is all so impressive. The off-season additions of Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Tobias Harris have proved fruitful. All are hitting big shots in games so far this season. Detroit is this year’s surprise East Team… and I kind of love them and their future.
Ceiling: Eastern Conference Semifinals Appearance
Floor: Play-In Exit
I’m Confused and Don’t Know What to Think
Three West teams that made moves at the deadline that I’m confused about what to think about their rosters
Los Angeles Lakers
I start this group with a team I’m truly confused by. First, I’m confused how they got Luka Doncic. They undoubtedly won the trade, and they have a plan for what happens post-LeBron. Here’s where my confusion lies: I don’t think they are good enough with the players on the roster that create a playoff rotation. I don’t think with 30 or so games left there is enough of a runway to make an impact this season.
Ceiling: Western Conference Finals
Floor: First round Exit
Dallas Mavericks
We can get it out the way, they lost the Luka trade long-term. Short term, I’d like to direct you to the Mavericks vs Rockets game on Saturday with Anthony Davis’s first game in a Mavericks uniform. Just watch the first five minutes and realize that for the Mavericks to have Anthony Davis with this roster, it’s very impressive before he gets hurt. Of course, I know it’s not Luka, and there’s a high percentage change in “Day to Day Davis” returns, but I think there’s a great possibility they could be successful. My confusion and concerns start and end with where they go at the end of close games and Kyrie’s playoff numbers. Since 2018, Kyrie has been a secondary scorer in the playoffs for all of the teams he’s played on there has been some inconsistency. I don’t doubt his talent, but the numbers back up the concerns. Will the Mavs look to Davis at the end of games and be the main scorer when the playoffs come?
Ceiling: Western Conference Finals
Floor: First Round Exit
Los Angeles Clippers
So Kawhi is back, Harden is facilitating well, and Norman Powell was a borderline All-Star. They gave up on their “Untouchable” trade piece in Terrance Mann and picked up Bogdan Bogdanovic. Zubac has been the exact center that fits for Harden. They also have defensive depth that should make any team worry… but that’s only one side of the ball. My worry and my confusion lie on the offensive side. Harden is shooting under 40% from the field, Leonard is easing back into things, and Norman as a third option is exciting, but I worry he won’t be as effective now that Kawhi is back.
Ceiling: Western Conference Semifinals
Floor: Miss the Play-in
The West Play-In Hopefuls
The teams in the Western Conference that will be battling for the Play-in Spots
Sacramento Kings
I am going to miss Foxy in a Kings jersey. I think I’m going to love seeing Lavine in one. I also love the idea of Sabonis running the offense and having a bunch of guys running handoffs or pick’n rolls with him. Their offense isn’t the worry. Their defense however isn’t the greatest, actually it's in the bottom third in the league when it comes to defensive rating. Keagan Murray is truthfully their only defender who can pass the Quinn Cook test consistently.
Ceiling: Western Conference Semifinals
Floor: Miss the Play-in
Minnesota Timberwolves
I think Anthony Edwards has enjoyed the fact that he’s the number one guy on a team. I think the Wolves don’t enjoy the Rudy Gobert contract anymore. As an NBA observer, I think they’d take back that KAT trade, but my counsel of Timberwolves fans and ball knowers tell me otherwise. This team continues to haunt me and I miss last year's team.
Ceiling: Western Conference Semi-Final
Floor Lose in the Play-in
Phoenix Suns
The fact they were trying to move Durant shows how quickly this team is ready to move on from players. How quickly they want to reset and start anew with some new talent. The Beal trade is continuing to look like a disaster and the two losses to the Blazers recently show they are stuck in the proverbial mud. On paper, this team feels like they should be good. Should fit the mold of a Budenholzer team. But they don’t shoot enough threes, they don’t play solid defense down the stretch, and while Booker and Durant are some of the greatest closers, their offense, like last year, is insanely predictable.
Ceiling: Western Conference Semifinals
Floor: Miss the Play-In
Golden State Warriors
The ability to acquire Jimmy Butler and only have to give up Wiggins, Schroeder, and Kyle Anderson is impressive. Seen in their first game on Saturday, the pieces can work well together. Of course that was against a lesser Bulls team. Steph is having a lesser year to his standards but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s still one of the most dangerous players in the NBA. Quinten Post is the next center in the line of many different ones that Steph has now had the chance to play with. He’s solid enough to start for the Warriors, hell he’d be a great rotation guy for most playoff teams. What scares me, or makes me think less of the Warriors is the fact that I worry about the rebounding ability and play creation outside of Steph and Butler. They have their go-to guys in a playoff series, but the depth and ability to score around them frightens me.
Ceiling: Western Conference Semifinals
Floor: Lose in Play-In
San Antonio Spurs
The fact that the Spurs went for De’Aaron Fox is a sign that they are going for it. They are actively trying to get better and grow as a team. The fact they didn’t have to give up key pieces such as Castles, Vassell, or Keldon Johnson was also impressive and exciting for the growth of their team. However, this team can’t close out a game for the life of them. Losing to the Hornets and the Magic in the last seconds of each game was rough to watch. Can this team's defense get a stop down the stretch? If they can, I feel confident in Fox or Wemby to get a bucket.
Ceiling: Western Conference Semifinals
Floor: Miss the Play-In
The East Play-In Possibilities
Teams in the Eastern Conference who will probably be in the Play-In, for better or worse.
Orlando Magic
The Magic has been an injury mess all season. First Paolo, then Franz, and finally Suggs all got hurt throughout the first half of the season. That being said, with their various injuries, the team’s depth showed. Cole Anthony, Tristan De Silva, and Mo Wagner were great to hold the record while the main trio was out. However, here’s my confusion… they’ve been BAD since Paolo has returned. They didn’t get better once Franz Wagner returned, and while the Suggs's return seems near, the Magic have been 2-8 in their last 10 games. Shouldn’t the Magic be better with their top players back in the lineup?
Ceiling: Eastern Conference Semifinals
Floor: Lose in the Play-In
Miami Heat
Getting rid of Jimmy Butler is the biggest blessing. There is no disguise, not having that stress over a team is important. I also like the addition of Wiggins and wish they would’ve kept Schroeder on the squad. Getting a great scoring season out of Herro, Bam is starting to look better, and since Kel’el Ware has started he has averaged a double-double in the starting lineup. There is a vibe to this team that can scream “DANGER” coming out of the Play-In. Now, they don’t have a Jimmy Butler like in years past to lead them offensively, but I am curious if Herro or Bam can be that leader this postseason.
Ceiling: Eastern Conference Semifinals
Floor: Play-in Exit
Atlanta Hawks
Jalen Johnson being out for the rest of the season sucks for this team. Moving on from De’Andre Hunter and Bogdanovic to gain some more assets for the future. If you’ve listened to the podcast since the beginning, my feelings about Trae Young are very apparent (not my favorite player), but this year’s version of him has grown on me. It sucks to see a team I was starting to enjoy on League Pass fall apart. Dyson Daniels, though, is the real deal on defense. They need to be healthy and find a third offensive talent to group with Young and Johnson.
Ceiling: First Round Exit
Floor: Play-In Exit
Chicago Bulls
I really have not thought much about the future of this team. I think they are very limited in how far they can fall in the standings, especially with the teams below them. Moving on from Lavine allows different players to create a name and score points. Can we see a Josh Giddey-led offense? Will Buzelis continue to grow as a creator and scorer? Side note, I do like the Lonzo extension as long as he can play 60 games a season. Great season to get his feet wet.
Ceiling: First Round Exit
Floor: Play-In Eit
Philadelphia Sixers
This team is just… gross. Paul George is nowhere near the MVP candidate from his time in OKC or the guy we saw with the undersized Clippers that made the WCF. Embiid hasn’t even played 20 games by the break. The only bright spot has been Maxey. Averaging nearly 28 points and becoming the undoubted leader of this team with Embiid and George’s different inconsistencies.
Ceiling: First Round Exit
Floor: Lottery Team
“Capturing the Flagg”
One sentence about these teams that are tanking and going after the top pick Cooper Flagg.
Brooklyn Nets
Competitive team that doesn’t want to lose, but doesn’t have the talent to win.
Ceiling: Play-In Exit
Floor: Top 10 Pick
Toronto Raptors
Team that trades for Ingram and has a solid wing core, but no semblance of a facilitating guard or player.
Ceiling: Lottery Team
Floor: Top 8 Pick
Portland Trail Blazers
Fun players make for a fun team.
Ceiling: Lottery Pick
Floor: Top 5 Pick
Charlotte Hornets
A Superstar-less team that has a great coach and an always injured number one option.
Ceiling: Top 8 Pick
Floor: Top 3 Pick
New Orleans Pelicans
A team with some great talent and defensive pieces and an exciting Trey Murphy.
Ceiling: Lottery Pick
Floor: Top 3 Pick
Utah Jazz
Will Hardy has been given an absolute crap show to run by Danny Ainge.
Ceiling: Top 5 Pick
Floor: Top 3 Pick
Washington Wizards
This team is Jordan Poole and where veterans have gone to die.
Ceiling Top 3 Pick
Floor: Top 1 Pick
